How is no-vig probability calculated?
This tool divides each outcome’s raw implied probability by the sum across all entered outcomes. Other methods can allocate the margin differently.
Betting math
No-vig & hold
calculator.
See the margin built into a set of odds—or calculate realized hold from settled handle and payouts. They answer different questions.
01 / Input
Choose what to measure
Odds format
Market outcomes
Complete market; pushes and voids aren’t modeled
AMERICAN
AMERICAN
AMERICAN
Quick example
Method used
Convert prices to implied probabilities, then normalize by their sum.
This proportional method is a transparent estimate—not a definitive true probability.
Use figures from the same settled period and reporting basis.
$
$
Formula used
Realized hold = (settled handle − gross payouts) ÷ settled handle
This describes completed results. It is not the margin quoted by odds.
02 / Readout
Remove the proportional margin
Quoted overround
4.76%
Raw implied probabilities total104.76%
Outcome 1
Raw implied52.38%
Proportional no-vig50.00%
Outcome 2
Raw implied52.38%
Proportional no-vig50.00%
Outcome 3
Raw implied—
Proportional no-vig—
i
The two prices imply 104.76% in total. Proportional normalization rescales them to 100%; it does not reveal a guaranteed or independently verified true chance.
Realized hold
5.50%
Gross revenue$550.00
Payout rate94.50%
Settled handle$10,000.00
Gross payouts$9,450.00
i
Hold is calculated from completed wagers using your inputs. If payouts exceed handle, the realized hold is negative; that can happen in a particular period.
Two different measures
Quoted margin isn’t
realized hold.
One comes from the prices offered. The other comes from what happened after wagers were settled.
%
Overround
Sum the implied probabilities for every outcome in one market. The amount above 100% is the quoted overround.
−110 / −110 → 104.76% total↗
Realized hold
Compare settled handle with gross payouts. The result changes with outcomes and the wagers placed.
($10,000 − $9,450) ÷ $10,000 = 5.50%Common questions
Know what the result says
A margin estimate helps read a market; it is not a prediction or a promise of value.
Is overround the same as hold?
No. Overround is derived from quoted odds. Realized hold uses settled handle and payouts after results are known.
Does an underround guarantee profit?
No. Check that every outcome is included and that the offers match in timing, rules, limits, and settlement conditions.
The FadeIt community Open conversation
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