The short version
Vig (also called juice) is the margin built into betting prices. Convert every outcome in one market to its implied probability and add them. If the sum is above 100%, the amount above 100% is the market’s overround.
A no-vig probability is an estimate made by removing that excess in some chosen way. FadeIt uses proportional normalization: divide each outcome’s raw implied probability by the total across all outcomes. It is a convenient, transparent method—not proof of the true chance.
Realized hold is different: it compares settled handle with gross payouts after results are known. A quoted overround is based on odds; hold is based on settled financial results.
How to calculate overround
First, convert each price to its raw implied probability. For decimal odds, that is 1 ÷ decimal odds. American and fractional prices can be converted to decimal first. Then add the probabilities for every mutually exclusive outcome in that same market.
For -110, the decimal price is about 1.9091, so the raw implied probability is 1 ÷ 1.9091 ≈ 52.38%. If both sides are -110, they total about 104.76%. The excess is 4.76 percentage points above 100%.
This is a property of the prices entered, not a promise that the sportsbook will earn exactly 4.76% of every dollar wagered. The result can depend on which side receives the money, how prices move, and what outcomes settle. Research also cautions that overround-based probabilities need not match actual outcome probabilities in every market.
How proportional no-vig works
To normalize the -110 / -110 example, divide each raw probability by their 104.76% sum:
For a three-outcome market, include all three prices, add all three raw probabilities, and divide each by that same total. The normalized results will add to 100% (apart from display rounding).
This method allocates the margin proportionally to the prices. Other approaches can distribute it differently, and the prices alone do not reveal which method is correct. Treat no-vig figures as a market-based reference—not an independent forecast or guaranteed edge.
Compare prices from the same market, bookmaker, and moment. Mixing different timestamps, omitting a draw, or combining markets with different rules can make the total misleading. A total under 100% is an underround in the entered prices; it is not, by itself, proof of a risk-free opportunity.
This simple calculation assumes every mutually exclusive outcome has a quoted price and one outcome settles the market. Pushes, voids, half-wins, and other partial settlements need a more specific model.
Realized hold uses settled results
Hold is calculated from settled wagering activity. For this calculator’s convention, use the total amount wagered on settled markets as handle and the total gross customer returns as payouts, including stakes returned with winning wagers.
For example, if settled handle is $10,000 and gross payouts are $9,450, the difference is $550 in gross revenue and realized hold is $550 ÷ $10,000 = 5.50%. If payouts exceed handle in a period, realized hold is negative.
Use figures from the same reporting period and consistent accounting basis. Operators may define or report related revenue measures differently, especially when promotions, voids, taxes, or other adjustments are involved. A public sportsbook filing gives one operational example of calculating gross revenue from settled handle less payouts.
Which number should you use?
If you want to understand the price offered on a game, overround and a no-vig estimate help describe that market. If you are examining completed wagering results, hold is the relevant measure. One cannot be substituted for the other.
This odds-based method is for markets with quoted prices on distinct outcomes. For digital casino games, the house edge guide and house edge calculator are the better fit: they focus on the game’s rules and theoretical expected cost, not sportsbook odds.
Neither metric establishes that a bet is good value. Expected value requires a probability estimate of your own, and that estimate can be wrong. See expected value, explained and use the implied probability calculator to translate a single price into its break-even rate.
Use the no-vig & hold calculator to compare a two- or three-outcome market or enter settled handle and payouts. Its proportional no-vig probabilities are only one transparent way to remove the quoted margin.
Further reading
Research on market structure and prices in online betting markets ↗ discusses overround and why odds-derived probabilities may not equal true probabilities. A DraftKings investor filing ↗ illustrates an operator’s use of settled handle less payouts to describe gross revenue or hold.